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Month: December 2017

Warm coming for the next week or so

Warm coming for the next week or so

My featured picture  was last year at this time and into January. Glad had the old analog thermometer as the new stuff on market  shuts down at that temp. Davis  and all the new digital PWS are completely useless after we hit 39.5 deg.  below zero. Modern electronics. They just don’t operate in the cold and military grade  equipment is out of sight unless your rich. 5-8 grand for PWS stations  that will operate in those extremes.

Anyways  so far this year the coldest been -23 here at the cabin and -27 in Fairbanks. Today we hit 35 above again and  starting to lose our spring time fire insurance fast as the downslope winds hit up the  atmosphere. From the forecast look at things for next week it is all down hill for snowpack.

An long wave  trough  over the Bering Sea  and eastern Siberia and  a ridge over Western Canada  continues to pump warm southernly flow into  Alaska. Juneau hit 54 degrees yesterday tying an old record.  With several short waves coming over the the Alaska ranges  in the next week   it will bringing  rain, freezing rains  and some snow to the Brooks. At the present times the GFS and ECMF are out of agreement and  forecaster are leaning more to the GFS.

High Wind warnings are up from Dot Lake thru to Tanacross starting this evening. Southernly flow is expected to drop some over night and increase speeds again durning the Day and speed aroud 80 to 85 mph are to be seen.  Delta Junction to my south (45 miles from me as crow flies) will be seening wind gusting upto 70 mph. The strong downslope winds will keep the chance of precip low  out to Tuesday evening. Then in the lull brif chance of freezing rain or snow.

Out on the coast during this time period  blizzard condx and blowing snow in expected. Up on the north slope Winter warning and blowing slow from the easterly winds. Wed. and Thurs. may see Blizzard conditions form as the eastly increases to 30 to 40 mph.

Storm track for last week been across the Gulf the n it takes the Pacific/North America  track so hold on to your hats East coast  an bit of Alaskan weather coming your way.

Till next time

Keep an log on the fire and Stay well

 

More Heavy snow for Valdez/ Thompson Pass Area

More Heavy snow for Valdez/ Thompson Pass Area

Another  24 inches  forecast for  that area  in next 24 hours as the atmospheric river  continues to  pump moisture into the area.  For those  would  don’t live along the coast   it is some thing to experience.  It  the same as lake effect snows. Fast  build up. Here one link to  news Article.

https://www.adn.com/alaska-news/weather/2017/12/08/alaska-just-reported-one-of-the-most-extreme-snowfall-rates-on-record-10-inches-per-hour/

They avalanche  area has been reopen  but rain  has made roads bad in that area.

 

Last night we had  brief  Chinook  condx. Hit 37 degrees and got most the snow cleared off the roof  as it warmed enough to break the to keep cabin  from going up in wildfire.cohesion on the metal  roof coverage.  No shingle here in the  country. One way to keep cabin loss down in wildfire.

Anchorage are is getting hit with snow and freezing rain.    other then  what I reported it been  quiet  on the home front. Just warmer then normal temps to be expected thru remainer of the week and continue into the next.

keep an log on the fire.

 

John

 

 

 

Road close due to snow conditions

Road close due to snow conditions

Here is excert from Daily news miner.

 

#ndn-video-player-1.ndn_embedded .ndn_floatContainer { margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 20px; }#ndn-video-player-2.ndn_embedded .ndn_floatContainer { margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 20px; }FAIRBANKS – An avalanche has closed the Richardson Highway at Thompson Pass between Miles 12-42, according to the Alaska Department of Transportation and Public Facilities.

A winter storm with extreme snowfall — 15 inches fell in 90 minutes in Valdez — is making travel hazardous south of the Alaska Range today. The avalanche occurred at Mile 39 about 3:30 a.m., according to DOT. It is about 200 feet long and 20 feet deep.

DOT crews are trying to keep up with the snowfall on the Richardson, Edgerton and Glenn highways, although the area of the Richardson that is closed will remain so until avalanche danger has been mitigated.

The storm, which has dumped 40 inches of snow so far, is forecast to bring nearly 4 feet of snow to Thompson Pass, where the Richardson Highway crosses the Chugach mountain range. The storm is accompanied by unseasonably warm temperatures, with rain mixing with wet snow, creating icy surfaces.

According to DOT, a drive that normally takes 15 minutes in Tazlina, south of Glennallen, took nearly an hour this morning. Power outages have been reported in the Copper River area and local schools are closed.

Another weather front is expected Thursday, which could bring additional heavy snow to Thompson Pass and snow and rain to Valdez.

and here is another:

45 inches of snow forecast for Thompson Pass

  • By Sam Friedman sfriedman@newsminer.com
  • Dec 6, 2017 Updated 4 hrs ago
#ndn-video-player-1.ndn_embedded .ndn_floatContainer { margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 20px; }#ndn-video-player-2.ndn_embedded .ndn_floatContainer { margin-top: 10px; margin-bottom: 20px; }

FAIRBANKS — Today is forecast to be a snowy day in Valdez and Thompson Pass, even by the standards of one of the snowiest parts of the country.

A winter storm warning issued Tuesday afternoon predicts Valdez will get between 2 and 3 feet of snow between 9 p.m. Tuesday and 9 p.m. today. The National Weather Service predicts nearly 4 feet could fall at the top of Thompson Pass, where the Richardson Highway crosses the Chugach Range.

The combination of heavy snow and wind along the summits will make travel through the pass extremely difficult.

Thompson Pass frequently gets massive snow dumps; it takes 2 feet of snow in the forecast for the Weather Service to issue a warning there. By comparison, in the dry climate around Fairbanks, the Weather Service issues a warning when 8 inches of snow are forecast, said Jim Brader, a meteorologist with the service.

The Interior also is forecast to get some snow today. One to 3 inches of snow are forecast in Fairbanks. The precipitation is expected to be heavier to the south and east, with 4-7 inches possible in Delta Junction and 8-16 inches at Isabel Pass, south of Delta Junction, where the Richardson Highway passes through the Alaska Range.

 Contact Outdoors Editor Sam Friedman at 459-7545. Follow him on Twitter: @FDNMoutdoors

Kevin you might just recognize the milepost mention in here as you said you were involved with an study in that area.

so far we been lucky only 1.5 inches here.

John

And into December

And into December

Well  November history here and  we stayed at the  8th snowy month . Two big storms in the Bering as they swept along the chain.  The first really bombed out with an drop of 55 mb in 24 hours with  winds gusting to 95 knots at Adak and Attu. The  second one hot on it heels  still pushed it  with winds gusting  over 75 knots.  %0 foot seas in the  bomb and the second had 45 foot seas. Lot of fun sailing in the chain in the winter on the  Dutch/Adak run. Temperature high for Nov @ Fairbanks was 30 deg with the low coming in at -29. Here  350 feet higher the low was -27 and  my high was 30 above.

So far December been warm compared to the  standard temps we  mostly see. Pass 2 days we have had a high 0f 35  with temps staying 30 or better late into the night due to Chinook winds as the Tanana Jet became active again. 50  MPH with gusting to 70 at Delta Junction as the winds  flowed over the Alaska Range from the south.

Under an winter storm advisory here. 10-20 inches of snow expected along an trough that runs from Fairbanks  south to the coast. Thompson pass  can get possible up to 30 inches  according to TV WX.  In that area  an warning is up and travel on the Richerson from Isbel Pass  south to Valdez is not advise. Here excert from forecast discussion.

Central and Eastern Interior: A front moving north over the
Interior will bring a quick round of snowfall tonight into
Wednesday for areas north and west of Fairbanks snowfall from
this system will generally be one to two inches. A strong push of
moisture from the south is expected to bring significant snowfall
to the eastern Alaska Range beginning tonight. Current NAM and GFS
differ from previous runs in that they all have significantly
lower QPF values along the Parks Highway corridor from Denali NP
northward to Fairbanks. The ECMWF does have more QPF along this
corridor; however we didn’t favor it since it is somewhat of an
outlier. The current NAM run actually keeps all of the snow east
of Fairbanks while the current GFS still brings in some. Our
afternoon forecast package will contain significantly lower PoPs
over Fairbanks than inherited from the previous shift. Snowfall
with this push of moisture will end Wednesday night. Another front
will move northward across the Interior Thursday night into early
Friday; however the models have difference in timing of this
feature at this point. At any rate it will bring a few inches of
snow.

 

It has been modify from the earlier  discussion but we will just have to see.

 

0100 here and temp is still at 33 deg. F

Humidity 69%

Dwpt  24 F

Wind 2 kts from the east  gusting  5

Well hope everyone had good turkey day

Stay well, stay warm and keep an log on the fire.

 

John

 

By the way that the noon day sun in the photo. 4 hour and 45 minutes of daylight  now. By the 21 th we will be down to 3 hour 45 minutes.